Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research

Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from Twenty-five Years of Research

Sophisticated extrapolation techniques have had a negligible payoff for accuracy in forecasting. As a result, major changes are proposed for the allocation of the funds for future research on extrapolation. Meanwhile, simple methods and the combination of forecasts are recommended. Comments Postprint version. Published in Interfaces, Volume 14, Issue 6, November 1984, pages 52-66. Publisher URL...

Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: The case of the Netherlands

BACKGROUND With the rapid aging of the population, mortality forecasting becomes increasingly important, especially for the insurance and pension industries. However, a wide variety of projection methods are in use, both between and within countries, that produce different outcomes. OBJECTIVE We review the different mortality forecasting methods and their assumptions in Europe, and assess their...

Evidence-based Forecasting for Climate Change

Following Green, Armstrong and Soon’s (IJF 2009) (GAS) naïve extrapolation, Fildes and Kourentzes (IJF 2011) (F&K) found that each of six more-sophisticated, but inexpensive, extrapolation models provided forecasts of global mean temperature for the 20 years to 2007 that were more accurate than the “business as usual” projections provided by the complex and expensive “General Circulation Models...

Advanced Forecasting Techniques and Models: Spline Extrapolation Short Examples Series using Risk Simulator

Relative Accuracy of Judgmental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings

This paper identifies and analyzes previously published studies on annual earnings forecasts. Comparisons of forecasts produced by management, analysts, and extrapolative techniques indicated that: (1) management forecasts were superior to professional analyst forecasts (the mean absolute percentage errors were 15.9 and 17.7, respectively, based on five studies using data from 1967-1974) and (2...